The first two halvings in the Bitcoin network were accompanied by increased volatility over the next 1-1.5 years. The asset’s price would rise from $11 to $1,100 or from $230 to $20,000 only to then plummet dramatically. Expert opinions are still divided regarding the influence of the third halving on the Bitcoin market. Some expect growth while others expect no significant changes.
Digital Asset Research experts believe that in May 2020 Bitcoin could rise as high as $60,595. This assumption is based on the analysis of the market’s behavior in cycles between previous halvings. It turned out that at the end of the cycle Bitcoin’s price is growing due to increased demand and reaches peak values in the first third of the cycle, each time rising to a new historical maximum. Researchers believe that if their model is correct, Bitcoin’s new peak price will be reached in September 2021. Following this model, with the next halving in 2024 Bitcoin’s price could reach $732,256.
A German bank Bayerische Landesbank came to a conclusion that the upcoming halving will allow Bitcoin to approach gold in when it comes to stock-to-flow (S2F) ratio. S2F for gold is 58 and by May 2020 it is not expected to dramatically change, while for Bitcoin it is expected to increase from 28.5 to 53. This could allow for Bitcoin’s price to soar to $90,000. If the model proposed by the bank’s experts is correct, the 2024 halving will increase the strength of Bitcoin to unprecedented levels of 100+.
That being said, analysts at the American company Strix Leviathan note that on the eve of the halving media are actively recommending users to hold Bitcoins and so the price surge in this period can be explained by the illusory increase in asset’s value amid growing speculation.